The UN Development Programme (UNDP) today issued a report highlighting that the impacts of war have set back development in Gaza by as much as 69 years.

The report warned that “without lifting economic restrictions, enabling recovery, and investing in development, the Palestinian economy may not be able to restore pre-war levels and advance forward by relying on humanitarian aid alone.”

The report suggested that a comprehensive recovery and reconstruction plan, combining humanitarian aid with strategic investments in recovery and reconstruction along with lifting economic restrictions and promoting recovery-enabling conditions, could help put the Palestinian economy on a restorative track to realign with Palestinian development plans by 2034.

“But this scenario can only play out if recovery efforts are unrestricted,” the report stated.

Achim Steiner, UNDP Administrator, said, “The assessment indicates that, even if humanitarian aid is provided each year, the economy may not regain its pre-crisis level for a decade or more.”

The report considers three scenarios of early recovery, and one of them is the “Under the Non-Restricted Early Recovery (NRER)” scenario.

This scenario suggested that restrictions on Palestinian workers are lifted, and withheld clearance revenues are restored to the Palestinian Authority. In addition to US$280 million in humanitarian aid, US$290 million is allocated annually for recovery efforts. The result would be an increase in productivity by 1 percent annually, enabling the economy to recover and putting Palestinian development back on track.

The report highlighted that by the end of 2024, development as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI) could drop to levels not seen since HDI calculations for the State of Palestine began in 2004.

The key findings showed that for the State of Palestine, the HDI will fall to 0.643—a level estimated for 2000, setting development back by 24 years. For Gaza, the HDI is projected to drop to 0.408—a level estimated for 1955, erasing over 69 years of progress.

The HDI for the West Bank is expected to decline to 0.676, reflecting a loss of 16 years, which is likely to further worsen, the assessment warns, if military incursions into the West Bank expand.